Friday, May 18, 2012

Does Tevez need his Dzek-mate?

Posted by Hogger On January - 2 - 2011 14 COMMENTS

Happy New Year to you all, and welcome to another Transfer Window – sponsored by Manchester City.

The window hasn’t yet been open for a single UK working day, and they’re already on the verge of buying their supporters a belated multi-million pound Christmas present: Wolfsburg’s Bosnian striker Edin Dzeko. According to multifarious sources on the heir-apparent to the Sky Sports News’ ticker, the Twitter timeline, a £27m fee has been agreed and the player is due to arrive for a medical on Tuesday.

Dzeko is undoubtedly a talented footballer, and one seemingly well-suited to the Premier League. Tall, powerful, and skillful, he’s a modern target man.

The question is: where does he fit in?

All season long City have played a 4-3-3, spear-headed by Carlos Tevez. In the lone striker role, Tevez has been exemplary, netting 35 goals in just 52 games. Moving him in to a wide position would be a madness, whilst changing to a 4-4-2 halfway through the campaign would be a radical move and one out of character with Roberto Mancini’s inherent caution. One wonders: is Mancini going to change the shape of the side to accommodate the new boy? Or is the £27m Dzeko simply going to replace the £25m Adebayor as an outrageously expensive substitute?

Making the wrong signing halfway through a season can be incredibly costly – just ask the Newcastle fans who saw the undoubtedly gifted Tino Asprilla disrupt their rhythm and cost them a title.

Perhaps Dzeko will become City’s starting striker, and Carlos Tevez will move on after all – after this weekend’s display, he’s got an intriguing new suitor.

What do you reckon City fans: rotation or reinvention?

A clear contradiction in terms, but it’s not as ludicrous as it might seem.

For years tacticians have played with formation. From the old WM to the modern hybrids like 4-1-4-1, 4-2-1-3, 4-5-1, 4-4-1-1, 3-5-2, 5-4-1, 3-4-3 and the now ubiquitous 4-1-1-1-1-1-1 (a variation on the Danubian 2-3-5 which was basically a 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 with each player given freedom to roam), they are always tinkering to try and find the edge.

Yet one part has been crucially overlooked. Most tacticians are poor mathematicians and have failed to realise that for all their keen insight the numbers only add up to 10. Yet football is a game of 11. The goalkeeper has been roundly ignored as just the bloke who wasn’t good enough to play and so is tasked to stand there and handball off the line whenever he gets the chance.

Of course there have been goalscoring keepers before. Chilavert, the free kick taking Chilean Paraguayan maverick, the Bulgarian Dimitar Ivankov (who later became manager of Dinamo Zagreb before being shot to death by a disgruntled centre-half during a lively training session), Scorpion King Rene Higuita and German Hans Jorg-Butt, the exact opposite of Teutonic caution and circumspection. Yet these are exceptions rather than rules.

Examples and evidence

Ben Foster

Foster needed to be taken into care after this display

This season though we’ve seen the emergence of the striking keeper, or the False 1©, in the Premier League. The diagram on your left shows Ben Foster’s recent display against Fulham. The intent is clear, he had 27 attempts on goal but as Alex McLeish’s plan is in its infancy there are issues still with targetting and distance. Every single shot fell short.

This is due to the understandable reluctance of Foster to push forward, fearing he’ll be exposed, yet McLeish has spoken about how when his False 1© goes beyond the halfway line his team should fall back into a fluid 10-0-1 crowding the goal line to block any potential breaks.

As Jonathan Wilson pointed out in his book – “Tictacshow small white mints define football” – the primary role of the striking keeper is to use his enormous shot power to pulverise opponents. What’s even more remarkable is that Wilson wrote about it before I had even invented the concept.

Getting them forward safely seems to be the main issue and one that many coaches are still trying to come to terms with. Alberto Zaccheroni is currently trialling it with the Japan national team. At first keeper Kawaguchi was skeptical but the Italian’s unrivalled tactical knowledge won him over and in a recent friendly against Fiji he scored eight goals, five of them from inside the opponents area!

Kawaguchi spoke to Japanese media after the game and revealed that although he now feels liberated he also gets a tremendous sense of regret that he has wasted so much of his career contrbuting little. He then committed ritual suicide live in television such was his shame. Zaccheroni is persisting with a much less sensitive player.

Problems

The natural wastefulness of goalkeepers can cause problems. For years they’ve not really been concerned with accuracy, content simply to lump it long to the biggest man up top. We can see how this affected Arsenal in the recent North London derby against Spurs. Much has been made of Arsenal’s defensive issues but look at how many attempts on goal Lukasz Fabianski wasted.

Fabianski - the False 1

Fabianski admitted to shooting lessons from Ade Akinbiyi

Had he even scored one of those goals it’s fair to say Arsene Wenger’s team would not have lost and again it raises questions over the Frenchman’s tactical acumen.

Conclusion

As defences get tighter and teams play with more men behind the ball simply so they don’t conceded then more adventurous coaches will look at bringing forward the Striking Keeper to break through the defensive wall.

One can imagine it when Man City play their new, albeit somewhat negative, 9 defenders + Tevez formation, and who could bet against a Brad Friedel or Pepe Reina popping up with the winner, causing Tevez to strangle Mancini on the sidelines?

It’s new, it’s rough around the edges, but it’s coming. Remember where you heard it first.

With a good natured doff of the cap to this.

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